These are live 2028 US presidential odds from the prediction market. The table below shows the Democratic nominee front-runners by implied probability, the most active 2028 market right now. Gavin Newsom leads, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff close behind. The numbers update in real time.
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the market's implied probability that the person becomes the 2028 Democratic nominee. Someone priced at 20% has, in the market's view, about a 20 percent chance. These prices come from traders backing candidates with real money, so they move as news breaks and money shifts. A candidate can climb or fall fast on a single event.
The numbers across a crowded field do not add to a clean 100 percent, because each candidate's price carries a small margin and the market is not perfectly efficient. Read each figure on its own as that candidate's implied chance.
Where these odds come from
These figures come live from the 2028 Democratic nominee market on Polymarket, the largest crypto prediction market. The market runs on-chain, so the prices are public and update continuously as trades go through. That makes them a live read of what the market thinks, rather than a static number that may be days old.
How to trade election markets
If you want to take a position on a candidate or on the general election, you trade the same markets these odds come from. You can open the market on Polymarket where it is available to you. To see what informed wallets are doing on political markets before you commit, SmartX is a terminal on the Polymarket ecosystem that ranks traders by realized PnL and win rate and streams their trades live, at a 0.5 percent fee. Following smart money is research, not a guarantee, so form your own view. This is not financial advice.
SmartX shows which wallets win and what they are trading on the same 2028 markets, so you can research before you take a side.
Open SmartX →Frequently asked questions
Who is favorite for the 2028 election?
In the prediction market's 2028 Democratic nominee odds, Gavin Newsom currently leads, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff. These are early odds and move often, so check the live table above for the current numbers.
What do these election odds mean?
Each percentage is the market's implied probability that a candidate wins the nomination. A candidate at 12% is priced with about a 12 percent chance. The prices come from traders buying and selling shares, so they update in real time as news moves the market.
Where can I bet on the 2028 election?
These odds come from the 2028 market on Polymarket, a crypto prediction market. You can trade it on Polymarket where it is available to you, or watch smart-money activity on the same markets through SmartX. Access depends on your region, and this is not financial or betting advice.
Are prediction market election odds accurate?
They reflect where real money is placed, and they update continuously, which makes them a live gauge of sentiment. They are not a forecast that is guaranteed to be right. Early markets in particular can move sharply as the field changes. Read them as a live read, not a prediction of the result.